Theory U: Leading from the Emerging Future
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On the Surface: Symptoms of Death and Rebirth (Downloading)
We move from the toppling of tyrants to an exploration of the deeper fault lines that keep generating the disruptive changes of our time. We also look at these disruptive events from the viewpoint of changemakers: In the face of disruption, what determines whether we end up in moments of madness or mindfulness?
Journaling Questions
Take a journal (or blank piece of paper) and write your responses to the questions below. Spend no more than one to two minutes answering each question. Number your responses.
- Where do you experience your ecosystem that is dying (in society, in your organization, in yourself)?
- Where do you experience your ecosystem that is waiting to be born (in society, in your organization, in yourself)?
- Where have you experienced moments of disruption? And what did you notice about your own process of presencing or absencing?
- How do the ecological, socioeconomic, and spiritual-cultural divides show up in your personal experiences?
Circle Conversation
Assemble a circle of five to seven individuals and hold a first meeting to share the context that each person brings to the circle. Respond to the following:
- Introduce your personal story with one or two formative experiences that shaped the person you are.
- Where do you experience your ecosystem that is ending/dying, and where do you experience your ecosystem that is beginning/wanting to be born?
- What do you consider to be the root causes and issues of our current crisis and the three divides?
- What do you personally feel is going to happen over the next year? The next one to five years?
- What would you like to do right now in order to make a difference going forward?
Structure: Systemic Disconnects
What are the structural issues that lead us to reenact patterns of the past and not connect to what is emerging? What is the underlying blind spot that, if illuminated, could help us to see the hidden structures below the waterline?
| The Challenge-Response Model of Economic Evolution | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary societal challenge | Response: coordination mechanism | Primary sector/players | Primary source of power | Dominant ideology | Primary state of consciousness | |
| Society 1.0: State-Driven, Mercantilism, Socialism | Stability | Commanding; hierarchy | State/government | Coercive (sticks) | Mercantilism; socialism (state-centric thought) | Traditional awareness |
| Society 2.0: Free-Market-Driven, Laissez-Faire | Growth | Competing: markets | Capital/business: state/government | Remunerative (carrots) | Neoliberal and neoclassic (market-centric thought) | Ego-system awareness |
| Society 3.0: Stakeholder-Driven, Social-Market Economy | Negative domestic externalities | Negotiation: stakeholder dialogue | Civil society/NGOs; capital/business; state/government | Normative (values) | Social democratic or progressive thought | Stakeholder awareness |
| Society 4.0: Eco-System Driven, Co-Creative Economy | Global disruptive externalities, resilience | Presencing: awareness-based collective action (ABC) | Cross-sector co-creation; civil society/NGOs; capital/business; state/government | Awareness: actions that arise from seeing the emerging whole | Eco-system-centric thought | Eco-system awareness |
Transforming Thought: The Matrix of Economic Evolution
| The Matrix of Economic Evolution | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage | Nature | Labor | Capital | Technology | Leadership | Consumption | Coordination | Ownership |
| 0.0: Communal: Premodern Awareness | Mother Nature | Self-sufficiency | Natural capital | Indigenous wisdom | Community | Survival | Community | Communal |
| 1.0: State-Centric: Mercantilism, State Capitalism; Traditional Awareness | Resource | Serfdom, slavery | Human capital | Tools: Agricultural Revolution | Authoritarian (sticks) | Traditional (needs-driven) | Hierarchy and control | State |
| 2.0: Free Market; Laissez-Faire; Ego-Centric Awareness | Commodity (land, raw materials) | Labor (commodity) | Industrial capital | Machines: first Industrial Revolution (coal, steam, railway) | Incentives (carrots) | Consumerism: mass consumption | Markets and competition | Private: exchange of private ownership in markets |
| 3.0: Social Market: Regulated; Stakeholder-Centric Awareness | Regulated commodity | Labor (regulated commodity) | Financial capital (externality-blind) | System-centric automation: second Industrial Revolution (oil, combustion engine, chemicals) | Participative (norms) | Selectively conscious consumption | Networks and negotiation | Mixed (public-private) |
| 4.0: Co-Creative: Distributed; Direct; Dialogic; Eco-Centric Awareness | Eco-system and commons | Social and business entrepreneurship | Cultural creative capital (externality-aware) | Human-centric technologies: third Industrial Revolution (renewable energy and information technologies) | Co-creative (collective presence) | CCC: collaborative conscious consumption | ABC: awareness-based collective action | Shared access to services and common resources |
Journaling Questions
| The Matrix of Economic Evolution | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nature | Labor | Capital | Technology | Leadership | Consumption | Coordination | Ownership | |
| 1.0 | Resource | Serfdom | Human | Tools | Authoritarian | Traditional | Central planning | State |
| 2.0 | Commodity | Commodity | Industrial | Machines | Incentives | Consumerism | Markets and competition | Private |
| 3.0 | Regulated commodity | Regulated commodity | Financial | System-centric automation | Participative | Selectively conscious consumption | Networks and negotiation | Mixed (public-private) |
| 4.0 | Eco-system, commons | Entrepreneurship | Cultural, creative | Human-centric | Co-creative | Collaborative conscious consumption | ABC: Awareness-based collective action | Commons: shared access |
- In each column, check one box (1.0, 2.0, 3.0, or 4.0) that best represents the currently dominant operating model in your ecosystem and context.
- Then draw a current reality line that links all the boxes that you checked.
- What would be the most appropriate operating model for the future work that needs to happen to address the big challenges of the next decade or two? In each row, check one box, this time using a different color.
- Now draw the emerging future line by connecting the second set of checked boxes with the second color.
- Compare both lines, the current reality line and the emerging future line. Do they differ, and if yes, where, and what does it mean?
Circle Conversation
- After completing the tasks above individually, have each member share with the group what the answers might mean going forward.
- What interesting prototypes can you think of for exploring 4.0 types of operating models in the context of your own work and life right now?
Source: Connecting to Intention and Awareness
| The Matrix of Social Evolution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field: Structure of Attention | Micro: Attending (Individual) | Meso: Conversing (Group) | Macro: Organizing (Institution) | Mundo: Coordinating (Global System) |
| 1.0 habitual awareness | Listening 1: downloading habits of thought | Downloading: speaking from conforming | Centralized control: organizing around hierarchy | Hierarchy: commanding |
| Suspending 2.0: ego-system awareness |
Listening 2: factual, open-minded | Debate: speaking from differentiating | Devisionalized: organizing around differentiation | Market: competing |
| Redirecting 3.0 stakeholder awareness |
Listening 3: empathic, open-hearted | Dialogue: speaking from inquiring others, self | Distributed/networked: organizing around interest groups | Negotiated dialogue: cooperating |
| Letting Go 4.0 eco-system awareness |
Listening 4: generative, open-presence | Collective creativity: speaking from what is moving through | Eco-system: organizing around what emerges | ABC: Awareness-based collective action: co-creating |
Journaling Questions
Use the Matrix of Social Evolution table to assess your current situation by answering the following questions.
| The Matrix of Social Evolution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awareness | Micro: Listening | Meso: Conversing | Macro: Organizing | Mundo: Coordinating |
| 1.0 habitual | Level 1: downloading | Downloading | Centralized control | Central planning |
| 2.0: ego-system awareness | Level 2: factual | Debate | Divisionalized | Markets and competition |
| 3.0 stakeholder | Level 3: empathic | Dialogue | Networked | Negotiation and dialogue |
| 4.0 eco-system | Level 4: generative | Collective creativity | Eco-system | ABC: seeing/acting from the whole |
- What percentage of your time do you spend on each level of listening? Write down the percentage.
- What percentage of your time do you spend on each level of conversing?
- What percentage of your time does your institution make you organize around centralized, divisionalized, networked, or eco-systemic structures?
- What percentage of your time do you spend on connecting to the whole through the mechanisms of hierarchy, competition, stakeholder negotiation, or ABC (shared awareness of the whole)?
- With a different-colored pen, indicate in the table what you would like the future to look like (using percentages).
- Compare the two sets of percentages, notice the gaps, and develop ideas for bridging them.
Circle Conversation
- After answering the six questions above individually, have each member of your circle share their insights, questions, and intentions in regard to their personal profile.
- What interesting small prototypes can you think of for exploring 4.0 types of operating that can move your profile from actual to desired?