Theory U: Leading from the Emerging Future

On the Surface: Symptoms of Death and Rebirth

We move from the toppling of tyrants to an exploration of the deeper fault lines that keep generating the disruptive changes of our time. We also look at these disruptive events from the viewpoint of changemakers: In the face of disruption, what determines whether we end up in moments of madness or mindfulness?

Journaling Questions

Take a journal (or blank piece of paper) and write your responses to the questions below. Spend no more than one to two minutes answering each question. Number your responses.

1. Where do you experience your ecosystem that is dying (in society, in your organization, in yourself)?
2. Where do you experience your ecosystem that is waiting to be born (in society, in your organization, in yourself)?
3. Where have you experienced moments of disruption? And what did you notice about your own process of presencing or absencing?
4. How do the ecological, socioeconomic, and spiritual-cultural divides show up in your personal experiences?

Circle Conversation

Assemble a circle of five to seven individuals and hold a first meeting to share the context that each person brings to the circle. Respond to the following:

1. Introduce your personal story with one or two formative experiences that shaped the person you are.
2. Where do you experience your ecosystem that is ending/dying, and where do you experience your ecosystem that is beginning/wanting to be born?
3. What do you consider to be the root causes and issues of our current crisis and the three divides?
4. What do you personally feel is going to happen over the next year? The next one to five years?
5. What would you like to do right now in order to make a difference going forward?

Structure: Systemic Disconnects

What are the structural issues that lead us to reenact patterns of the past and not connect to what is emerging? What is the underlying blind spot that, if illuminated, could help us to see the hidden structures below the waterline?

The Challenge-Response Model of Economic Evolution
	Primary societal challenge	Response: coordination mechanism	Primary sector/players	Primary source of power	Dominant ideology	Primary state of consciousness
Society 1.0: State-Driven, Mercantilism, Socialism	Stability	Commanding; hierarchy	State/government	Coercive (sticks)	Mercantilism; socialism (state-centric thought)	Traditional awareness
Society 2.0: Free-Market-Driven, Laissez-Faire	Growth	Competing: markets	Capital/business: state/government	Remunerative (carrots)	Neoliberal and neoclassic (market-centric thought)	Ego-system awareness
Society 3.0: Stakeholder-Driven, Social-Market Economy	Negative domestic externalities	Negotiation: stakeholder dialogue	Civil society/NGOs; capital/business; state/government	Normative (values)	Social democratic or progressive thought	Stakeholder awareness
Society 4.0: Eco-System Driven, Co-Creative Economy	Global disruptive externalities, resilience	Presencing: awareness-based collective action (ABC)	Cross-sector co-creation; civil society/NGOs; capital/business; state/government	Awareness: actions that arise from seeing the emerging whole	Eco-system-centric thought	Eco-system awareness

Transforming Thought: The Matrix of Economic Evolution

The Matrix of Economic Evolution
Stage	Nature	Labor	Capital	Technology	Leadership	Consumption	Coordination	Ownership
0.0: Communal: Premodern Awareness	Mother Nature	Self-sufficiency	Natural capital	Indigenous wisdom	Community	Survival	Community	Communal
1.0: State-Centric: Mercantilism, State Capitalism; Traditional Awareness	Resource	Serfdom, slavery	Human capital	Tools: Agricultural Revolution	Authoritarian (sticks)	Traditional (needs-driven)	Hierarchy and control	State
2.0: Free Market; Laissez-Faire; Ego-Centric Awareness	Commodity (land, raw materials)	Labor (commodity)	Industrial capital	Machines: first Industrial Revolution (coal, steam, railway)	Incentives (carrots)	Consumerism: mass consumption	Markets and competition	Private: exchange of private ownership in markets
3.0: Social Market: Regulated; Stakeholder-Centric Awareness	Regulated commodity	Labor (regulated commodity)	Financial capital (externality-blind)	System-centric automation: second Industrial Revolution (oil, combustion engine, chemicals)	Participative (norms)	Selectively conscious consumption	Networks and negotiation	Mixed (public-private)
4.0: Co-Creative: Distributed; Direct; Dialogic; Eco-Centric Awareness	Eco-system and commons	Social and business entrepreneurship	Cultural creative capital (externality-aware)	Human-centric technologies: third Industrial Revolution (renewable energy and information technologies)	Co-creative (collective presence)	CCC: collaborative conscious consumption	ABC: awareness-based collective action	Shared access to services and common resources

Journaling Questions

The Matrix of Economic Evolution
	Nature	Labor	Capital	Technology	Leadership	Consumption	Coordination	Ownership
1.0	Resource	Serfdom	Human	Tools	Authoritarian	Traditional	Central planning	State
2.0	Commodity	Commodity	Industrial	Machines	Incentives	Consumerism	Markets and competition	Private
3.0	Regulated commodity	Regulated commodity	Financial	System-centric automation	Participative	Selectively conscious consumption	Networks and negotiation	Mixed (public-private)
4.0	Eco-system, commons	Entrepreneurship	Cultural, creative	Human-centric	Co-creative	Collaborative conscious consumption	ABC: Awareness-based collective action	Commons: shared access

1. In each column, check one box (1.0, 2.0, 3.0, or 4.0) that best represents the currently dominant operating model in your ecosystem and context.
2. Then draw a current reality line that links all the boxes that you checked.
3. What would be the most appropriate operating model for the future work that needs to happen to address the big challenges of the next decade or two? In each row, check one box, this time using a different color.
4. Now draw the emerging future line by connecting the second set of checked boxes with the second color.
5. Compare both lines, the current reality line and the emerging future line. Do they differ, and if yes, where, and what does it mean?

Circle Conversation

1. After completing the tasks above individually, have each member share with the group what the answers might mean going forward.
2. What interesting prototypes can you think of for exploring 4.0 types of operating models in the context of your own work and life right now?